Opinion-Editorial
For Immediate Release: February 25, 2004

Every year the Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWCC) implements a long-standing plan to do at least one statewide aerial survey of manatees aggregated at warm water sites in Florida. This count, called a synoptic survey, is a requirement of Florida Statute 370.12, the Florida Manatee Sanctuary Act. The point of each synoptic survey is to count as many manatees as can be seen in a state-wide effort performed on one or two specified days each year, focusing on the areas where they are known to aggregate.

Despite the fact that most, if not all, population scientists who have weighed in on the manatee population status issue have said that the synoptic surveys cannot be used for assessing population trends, nor the survival rates for the species, nor survival rates of any age class, the surveys are flown annually because the law requires it. There has been much discussion over the value of these surveys considering the cost, the effort, and the criticism by experts questioning the value of doing them at all. Nevertheless, the law requires it and so it is done each year, optimal weather conditions permitting.

There is a valid question being asked by those with the most experience in these matters: What purpose do the surveys achieve? Do they provide any information of scientific value beyond the "head count" tallied on that day? For example, do they provide information on the survival rates of different age classes of manatees? Or survival rates between subpopulations or sexes? Or information on sex ratios? Do they provide information on the status of essential manatee habitat or current and future threats to the species? Behavior or movement patterns on any day other than the one on which they were counted? No! They say only one thing – how many manatees showed up to be counted at various favored areas on one clear, cool day following the passage of a cold front. All you get is one piece of information based on counts at non-randomly selected sites.

Not that there's anything (or too much) wrong with that. No one disputes that the surveys provide an estimated minimum population number to plug into a more sophisticated population model that may yield usable information, provided all the other, important questions are asked and scientifically answered and plugged into the model as well. But how many consecutive years of proclaiming the number of manatees counted on one day do we need to meet the task at hand? To read it in the press each year, the synoptics are the vital currency by which to measure the survival of the species. But, in fact, the numbers, while useful for the purpose stated above, tell us nothing about the manatees' future.

The best, most recently available science tells us that the species is not faring well in two subpopulations that make up 84% of the manatee population in Florida. We desperately need to find out why and to do that we need new and better information on survival rates of different age classes, warm water source viability, regulatory needs, genetic relationships among and between subpopulations, etc. Let’s all focus on these complex issues, so we can use many layers of meaningful data and, by doing so, put the synoptic survey numbers, whether low or high, into proper perspective. It is only one piece of the puzzle, and certainly not the most important information, in determining what the future holds for recovery of the species. With limited resources available, should we be asking and answering the same question repeatedly, year after year?

Synoptic survey results: 1991 - 2004

Get more information on the current status of the manatee population